Unsure of what to plan for, officials hope for a measured response
but fear a mass migration out of and into Cuba.
MIAMI — Ramon Saul Sanchez has put out the call: "Get ready. We're
going to Cuba."
Sanchez, 52, the founder of a Miami group called the Democracy
Movement, or
Movimiento Democracia, has led flotillas toward
Cuba's territorial water to protest the regime of Fidel Castro and
what he believes is deeply flawed U.S. policy toward the island
nation.
When Castro dies, he said, he plans to sail for the island with
generators, medicine and other supplies — and bring word that
"freedom is on its way."
Military leaders, law enforcement officials and aid organizations
preparing for the Cuban leader's death are hoping for a calm and
measured response on both sides of the Florida Straits.
They are well aware, however, that Castro's death could lead to a
turbulent series of events — even an international incident, they
fear, if Sanchez and other Cuban American leaders in South Florida
sail for the island in large numbers.
Knowing the passion that Castro evokes — passion that could
overwhelm even the best planning — officials are unsure whether they
should be preparing for chaos or calm, or something in between.
"We've been waiting a long time for this. Realistically, anything
can happen," said Andy S. Gomez, an assistant provost at the
University of Miami and a senior fellow at the Institute for Cuban
and Cuban-American Studies. Gomez has briefed federal officials on
the spectrum of events that could unfold after Castro's death.
It has been six months since Castro, 80, underwent emergency
intestinal surgery and provisionally ceded power to Raul Castro, 75,
his brother and defense minister. Recent footage released by the
Cuban government appeared to show that Fidel Castro had regained
strength and weight. But reports that he is in "grave" condition,
coupled with U.S. intelligence officials' grim appraisals of his
health, have prompted authorities to put preparations in overdrive.
Officials in South Florida believe a composed response to Castro's
death is most likely.
In that scenario, Raul Castro would seamlessly maintain control
through a blend of modest economic reform and political tactics. On
the island, he would be seen as the face of a brighter future,
giving Cubans little reason to flee. In Florida, Cuban Americans
would demonstrate and celebrate — the largest event would probably
be held at the 80,000-person-capacity Orange Bowl — but would
generally heed calls for restraint.
But upheaval is possible. In what officials perceive as the worst
case, the Cuban government would collapse, prompting a dangerous
mass migration out of and into Cuba. Cubans fleeing the island and
Cuban Americans trying to get in from Florida could meet in the
middle of the Straits, creating a crisis that could overwhelm
rescuers and further erode the stability of Latin America.
"You want to plan. You don't want to have to put the plans in
motion," said Sam Tidwell, chief executive of the American Red Cross
of Greater Miami & the Keys and a leader in the effort to prepare
for Castro's death.
Law enforcement officials are holding tabletop exercises of
emergency plans and laying the groundwork to restrict the sale of
gasoline in Florida or to close marinas so Cuban Americans can't
make a run for the island. On Spanish-language radio stations,
authorities are pleading with Cuban Americans to stay home.
Military officials believe that if American activists try to get to
Cuba, they will disrupt the official response to Castro's death and
perhaps put more strain on relations between Cuba and the United
States.
If even a single Cuban American group tried to make its way to the
island, "it would be a very serious risk," said Marielena A.
Villamil, a member of the American Red Cross board of directors and
an owner of an economic consulting firm in Coral Gables, Fla.
"We don't know what the situation will be in Cuba," said Villamil,
who is also involved in preparations for Castro's death. "Would they
be welcomed with open arms? Or with arms — weapons?"
A network of aid groups, meanwhile, is preparing to help reunite
families, coordinate donations and care for refugees in the event of
an exodus from Cuba to the United States.
Delicate tasks could lie ahead in Florida.
For instance, some officials have debated whether Castro's death
could force them to alter the "wet-foot, dry-foot" immigration
policy, which typically repatriates Cubans interdicted at sea but
generally allows those who reach U.S. soil to stay.
If the policy were altered, the federal government could find itself
detaining refugees who made it to the United States, Tidwell said.
At that point, the Red Cross, founded as a neutral caregiver, would
be prohibited by its bylaws from providing any assistance, he said.
"We can be helpful in places where people are being processed but
not where people are being detained," Tidwell said. "If there are
political decisions being made — if people are no longer free to go
— we pull out."
The bulk of preparations in the U.S. for Castro's death aims to
ensure that is not an issue — by preventing any mass migration.
Authorities are planning extensive water patrols to stop boaters
trying to reach the United States. Most refugees would be returned
to Cuba, either to a port or to Guantanamo Bay, a U.S. naval base,
where military officials would house them in large tents or other
temporary structures until they could return home.
Communication, coordination between government agencies, and
intelligence inside Cuba, among other factors, are much improved
since officials were caught off-guard by the Mariel boatlift of
1980, which brought an estimated 125,000 Cubans to Florida.
"We've learned quite a bit," said Miami-Dade County Assistant Fire
Chief Carlos J. Castillo. "I don't see anything approaching Mariel."
Authorities believe Raul Castro would probably view a large exodus
after his brother's death as a discrediting sign of dissent within
his regime, and would probably deploy the military to prohibit it.
They also believe that the response to Castro's death could be muted
because the transition between the brothers has brought little sign
of unrest.
Through intelligence sources, U.S. officials are monitoring signs of
boat building in Cuba and have found no evidence of an increase,
said Coast Guard Lt. Cmdr. Chris O'Neil.
"The passing of Fidel Castro, in and of itself, is not going to
create a mass migration," he said.
Others disagree. Some involved in the preparations worry that there
won't be enough boats to police the Florida Straits. Others question
whether Raul Castro has the clout or the charisma to hold Cuba
together.
Gomez, of the University of Miami, predicts that 500,000 people will
head for Florida within a year of Castro's death.
"We do not have the infrastructure to handle that kind of
migration," he said. "You will see a large humanitarian crisis."
Over lunch in Miami's Little Havana, Ramon Saul Sanchez outlined his
group's plans. A businessman has donated the use of 400 feet of dock
space on the Miami River, he said, from which Sanchez plans to
launch boats toward Cuba, including a ferry that can carry 50
passengers to the island, as well as 20 tons of cargo.
He has two cargo planes on call and is amassing supplies at a large
storage space, he said.
Sanchez believes Cuba's government may collapse after Castro dies.
With the communist government in control of so many functions, such
as food distribution, that could mean a collapse of civic structure,
Sanchez said.
Therefore, he said, the only way to avoid a migration from Cuba is
to go to the island immediately after Castro's death, against the
wishes of both nations' militaries and government leaders, with
supplies and a message of hope.
"What we intend to do helps the U.S. interest, because it diminishes
the chance of a mass exodus to the United States," he said.
"We have moral leverage, and we intend to use it."
scott.gold@latimes.com
Posted on Fri, Feb. 16, 2007
MIAMI HERALD EXCLUSIVE | GUANTANAMO BAY
Plan prepared
for Cuban exodus
The Bush administration will build a new facility to
detain migrants in Guantánamo amid stepped-up
preparations for dealing with a post-Castro Cuba.
By
PABLO BACHELET
ALBERT DIAZ/MIAMI HERALD STAFF
DOMINOES: A group of Cuban rafters
spend the evening playing dominoes in one of
the migrant villages at Guantánamo Bay,
Cuba.
WASHINGTON
- Concerned about a possible mass exodus
of Cubans, the Department of Defense plans to spend
$18 million to prepare part of the U.S. Navy base at
Guantánamo Bay to shelter interdicted migrants, U.S.
officials told The Miami Herald.
The new installation is needed because terrorism
suspects occupy space on the base used in past
emergencies to hold large numbers of migrants, Bush
administration officials directly involved said.
They note that the facilities are designed to house
people from any Caribbean nation who attempt to
enter illegally -- not just Cubans.
But they say privately that Fidel Castro's
illness and temporary hand-over of power to his
brother Raúl last summer injected a renewed sense of
urgency into plans to handle a mass exodus. The
administration quietly requested the funds about a
month ago and Congress has approved it, The Miami
Herald was told.
The officials, who were authorized to speak on
the subject but requested anonymity because of the
sensitive nature of Cuban issues, say there is no
sign a Cuban migration crisis is brewing, but they
acknowledge predicting one is difficult. The 1980
Mariel boatlift, which saw 125,000 Cubans arrive in
Florida, began when a group of Cubans tried to storm
the Peruvian embassy in Havana.
BIGGER PLAN
The $18 million initiative is part of a broader
U.S. government effort to prepare for the death of
Castro. The administration will not say how many
migrants it believes might flee Cuba or even if any
will do so, but one expert warned that up to 500,000
may try to leave the island after Castro's death.
Top Bush Cabinet officials have met at least
twice since December to review Cuba contingency
plans. On March 7 and 8, the Department of Homeland
Security will lead an exercise in South Florida
involving the Coast Guard and dozens of federal,
state and local agencies, focused on stopping U.S.
boaters from picking up rafters.
The U.S. Navy base, on the eastern tip of Cuba,
apparently would be used as a shelter of last resort
if the volume of Cubans interdicted at sea
overwhelms the U.S. policy known as ``wet foot/dry
foot.''
Under that policy, Cubans who make it to U.S.
territory are allowed to remain. Those intercepted
at sea are interviewed aboard Coast Guard vessels
and most are repatriated to Cuba. A few who have
been found to credibly risk persecution if returned
to Cuba have been taken to Guantánamo for more
interviews while U.S. officials arrange for their
resettlement in third nations.
U.S. officials refused to say whether the wet
foot/dry foot policy will be changed in case of an
exodus, since such an announcement might prompt many
Cubans to leave.
For years, migrants captured during surges ended
up in tent camps at Guantánamo on a bluff called
Radio Range, on the larger Windward side of the
base.
1994 MIGRATIONS
At the height of the last migration crisis in
1994, more than 32,000 Cubans and 21,000 Haitians
overwhelmed the base in tent cities. Most of the
Cubans were later sent to the United States. Most of
the Haitians were sent home.
The Pentagon has since built its sprawling
terrorism detention and interrogation center at the
site of the old tent camps, limiting shelter space.
The plan would put them on the smaller Leeward side,
which has an airstrip but no docks for large ships.
''The capacity to process migrants at Guantánamo
is an integral part of our overall plans to ensure
that any attempted mass migration in the Caribbean
is not successful,'' said one official, who also
declined to be identified. The official said the new
facility is ``part of prudent contingency
planning.''
''The U.S. has established avenues for safe,
orderly, legal migration from the various countries
in the Caribbean,'' the official added. ``Any effort
to send people to the United States via unsafe and
illegal means will not succeed.''
The Pentagon already has solicited construction
bids for the new facility. The $18 million would pay
for things like land leveling, sewage and electrical
infrastructure, bathrooms, dining facilities and
administrative offices to process asylum
applications. The installations will be initially
designed to handle about 10,000 migrants, officials
say, though more can be quickly accommodated if
needed.
SCENARIOS
Andy Gomez, senior fellow at the University of
Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American
Studies, says focus groups and other interviews show
many young Cubans are eager to leave.
''If the economic conditions do not get better,
there is the strong possibility that as many as
500,000 Cubans will want to leave the island in all
directions,'' he says. ``The other possibility will
also be a large group of Cubans rushing the U.S.
base in Guantánamo or foreign embassies in Havana.''
Latin American countries may be reluctant to take
in numerous migrants, he added.
Meanwhile, the Coast Guard is finalizing plans
for an exercise next month that will involve scores
of vessels.
Rear Adm. David Kunkel, head of the Coast Guard's
South East District, is in charge of coordinating
interdiction efforts among many agencies, including
the U.S. Navy and Miami-Dade Police.
''We would be concerned with boaters leaving from
South Florida marinas to potentially increase the
problem,'' said Jim Watson, chief of staff of the
South East District. He said ''deterrent elements''
would be tested.
Miami Republican Reps. Lincoln and Mario
Diaz-Balart, who have been briefed on preparations,
could not be reached for comment.
Miami Herald staff writer Carol Rosenberg
contributed to this report
